For The Third Time In A Row, A Survey Predicts Peter Obi Will Win The 2023 Presidential Election

Peter Obi, the Labour Party candidate, has been picked as the winner of the upcoming presidential election for the third time in a row.

Nigerians are getting ready for the February 25 presidential election, which is only nine days away.

The third poll in the series was completed in the first half of February 2023 and follows two earlier polls carried out (using the same methodology) in September and December 2022, according to the survey commissioned by the ANAP Foundation and performed by NOI polls Limited (NOIPolls).

We think the first widely reported national poll produced concerning the 2023 Presidential elections was our baseline Presidential Poll, which was followed by a Bloomberg poll published on September 28, 2022.

The foundation stated that it is important to note that NOIPolls’ methodology is nearly identical to that employed in prior presidential surveys they conducted for us in 2011, 2015, and 2019.

“In all those prior presidential surveys, the front-runner who was predicted by our polls ultimately prevailed in the elections, even though a sizable portion of voters remained undecided and/or refused to declare their preference. In our numerous governorship polls conducted in 2011, 2014, 2015, 2019, and 2022, we used the same approach, and it generally held up well. Of course, there are several notable distinctions between the 2023 presidential election and previous ones. 1) A longer campaign season; 2) the appearance of four main candidates rather than two; and 3) increased voter fervor,” according to the survey report, which was signed by Atedo Peterside, the foundation’s president and founder.

By conducting three separate polls with sample sizes of 1,000, 2,000, and 3,000 in December 2022, we went above and beyond to expand the methodology in our second presidential poll in this series. We were able to confirm that (as planned) the findings did not alter much. Despite this, we decided to utilize a larger sample size for our third and final poll in February 2023, choosing a sample size of 2,000 as opposed to the 1,000 we used for the published polls in September and December 2022.

Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) are both in second place, according to the results of our third and final poll conducted in February 2023. Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP) is still in the lead. The lone outsider was revealed to be Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP). With 21% of registered voters saying they would support Peter Obi if the presidential election were held today, and 13% saying they would support Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who came in second, Asiwaju Bola Obi is currently in the lead. Alhaji Atiku Abubakar came in third with 10%, while Rabiu Kwankwaso came in a distant fourth with 3% of the vote.

It was highlighted in the report that while Peter Obi’s 8% lead at this point is impressive, it is insufficient to set him apart from a leading pack of contenders scoring 13%, 10%, and 3% given the sizable pool of voters who are still undecided or who have declined to reveal their favorite candidate.

Undecided voters make up a staggering 23% of the electorate, while 30% of voters want to remain anonymous. According to the report, 27% of registered female voters are still unsure about their vote, compared to 18% of registered male voters.

The foundation claimed that even though the candidate who was leading in the polls using this same approach in 2011, 2015, and 2019 ended up winning the election, using its tried and true method of sampling since 2011 the 2023 presidential elections are too close to call.

The foundation warned that the undecided/refused vote was still too high (in early February 2023) to be disregarded, even if Peter Obi had been the clear favorite this time. “We had anticipated that by delaying our third and final poll until early February 2023, the Undecided Vote would collapse. In actuality, the rise in voters who choose to withhold the identity of their preferred candidate has more than outweighed the decrease in Undecided Votes. We believed that a long campaign cycle would result in different candidates taking turns leading the field when we conducted our first baseline survey in September 2022. That has not happened. This protracted race has been shockingly boring.